📄 2042 Bubble Watch: Update Feb 27th

The updated CBGM Bubble Watch is out. Check out who’s potentially in and who’s potentially out.

Power Programs in Peril

The “teams who are out” side is filled with familiar names, the kind of programs fans expect to see every March:

• Marquette Golden Eagles (19–10, 10–9, NET: 65) – A solid record in the Big East, but their efficiency profile is slipping. The Golden Eagles need a late run to secure a bid.

• West Virginia Mountaineers (17–9, 10–7, NET: 71) – A winning record in a power league isn’t enough on its own. Their middling NET has them just outside the field.

• Mississippi State Bulldogs (17–10, 10–6, NET: 60) – A decent SEC showing, but they’re running out of statement opportunities.

• Arizona Wildcats (16–11, 9–9, NET: 69) – One of the more surprising bubble teams, Arizona’s inconsistency in Pac-12 play has left them scrambling.

• Missouri Tigers (17–10, 10–6, NET: 81) – Despite a strong SEC record, their NET ranking is dragging them down.

• Syracuse Orange (16–12, 7–9, NET: 102) – A brand name in March, but this year’s numbers are well below at-large standards.

For fans of these schools, the message is clear: reputation alone won’t earn a spot. Without quality wins and stronger metrics, these programs risk an early end to their seasons.

Mid-Majors Stepping Up

On the “teams that are in” side, it’s the less traditional names making noise with tournament-worthy résumés:

• American Eagles (21–6, 13–3, NET: 48) – A stellar record and a top-50 NET give American a legitimate at-large profile.

• Campbell Camels (20–7, 13–3, NET: 38) – One of the best NET numbers of any mid-major, Campbell is firmly in the mix.

• Seattle Redhawks (21–7, 11–3, NET: 73) – Seattle is stacking wins, positioning themselves as one of the top threats outside the power leagues.

• NJIT Highlanders (19–8, 11–3, NET: 54) – Their metrics and solid win total push them into serious consideration.

• Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (22–5, 12–4, NET: 68) – The record speaks for itself: Middle Tennessee is in prime position to steal a spot.

• Lindenwood Lions (21–6, 14–2, NET: 50) – Another mid-major cracking the NET top 50, Lindenwood has emerged as a legitimate at-large candidate.

Several others, including FDU, Siena, and Milwaukee, are lurking just inside the cut line, showing how wide the door is open for strong finishers from outside the traditional power conferences.

The Bottom Line

The picture is getting clearer: programs like Arizona, Marquette, and Mississippi State are in danger of missing the tournament unless they string together wins immediately. Meanwhile, schools like Campbell, NJIT, and American are proving that mid-majors with strong résumés can’t be ignored.

For fans, it means March could look very different — with fewer bluebloods and more upstarts ready to crash the party.

Good luck to everyone.