Ladies and gentlemen — the bracket is here, and March Madness is about to deliver pure chaos. Thirty-two first-round matchups, four loaded regions, and storylines that will shape the tournament before a single tip-off. We’re talking blue-blood giants chasing banners, mid-majors ready to shock the world, and double-digit seeds lurking with upsets on their mind.

From Notre Dame’s balanced juggernaut to Georgetown’s dominance, from St. Mary’s steady machine to USC’s star power, every corner of this bracket is dripping with intrigue. Résumé wins, superstar scorers, glue-guy X-factors — it’s all here, and the road to glory starts now.

So buckle up. Let’s break down every single matchup, region by region, game by game — who’s legit, who’s vulnerable, and which names you’ll be circling when the madness takes hold.

📍 PHILADELPHIA REGION

(1) Notre Dame vs. (16) Northeastern/Denver

Season Overview

Notre Dame enters as a one-seed and one of the most complete teams in the field. Hanson has been their conductor, leading in assists TWENTY times, often piling up double-digit dimes that kept their offense humming. Estrada provides the perimeter fireworks, scoring leader in eight games and hitting daggers when defenses collapse. Morton is their interior rock, topping eight games in rebounds and punishing teams who dared to go small. Northeastern earned its way behind Torres’s playmaking, who controlled nine games as assist leader, while Denver survived the grind of March thanks to Daniels in the backcourt and Thompson inside. Both programs deserve respect, but neither has faced a balanced monster like this Irish squad.

Best Wins

Notre Dame’s résumé screams power. They blitzed Akron 98–83, Hanson dishing 12 assists while Estrada buried 5 threes. They handled LSU 89–76, Morton’s 14 rebounds shutting down second chances. They survived a war with Louisville 74–73, Estrada hitting a game-winner from the wing. They beat Stanford 83–80 in OT, Hanson controlling the extra session. And the exclamation mark? North Carolina 88–84, where Estrada poured in 27 and Morton snagged 12 boards. Northeastern’s high point came in their league title, Torres tallying 11 assists, while Denver edged Montana 72–69 behind Daniels’ 22 points. But none of that compares to Notre Dame’s gauntlet.

X-Factor

Estrada is Notre Dame’s swing piece. Hanson and Morton bring consistent production, but when Estrada heats up, the Irish offense becomes lethal. Northeastern’s hope is Torres creating enough open looks to keep it competitive, while Denver’s lifeline is Daniels catching fire — but both are staring up a mountain.

(8) Evansville vs. (9) Purdue

Season Overview

This is a true coin-flip. Evansville rides Orellana, who led in scoring THIRTEEN times and in assists TEN times, often putting the entire team on his back. Flynn complements him, pacing seven games in assists, while Peppers fills gaps across the floor. Purdue, by contrast, is system-driven. Garrett kept the offense steady with nine assist-leader nights, Quinteros provided the scoring punch with five games atop the sheet, and Markoulides controlled the glass seven times. The contrast is stark: Evansville is star-reliant; Purdue is system-reliant.

Best Wins

Evansville’s calling card was their 87–85 win over Murray State, where Orellana dropped 26 points with 8 assists, proving he could close out tight games. They also handled Indiana State 79–72 with Flynn dishing 9 assists. Purdue’s crown jewel was blasting Butler 95–68, Quinteros scoring 24, Garrett posting 11 assists, and Markoulides grabbing 13 boards in their most complete performance. They also edged Illinois 74–71 in a Big Ten grinder, showing late-game toughness.

X-Factor

For Evansville, it’s Flynn. If he takes playmaking pressure off Orellana, the Aces spread the floor and become dangerous. For Purdue, it’s Quinteros. When he hunts shots aggressively, defenses collapse, freeing Garrett to orchestrate. If Quinteros fades, Purdue’s offense bogs down, and Evansville’s star can shine.

(5) Butler vs. (12) Charlotte

Season Overview

The dreaded 12/5. Butler looks steady, led by Riley, who paced FIFTEEN games in scoring with reliable 18–20 point outputs. Greer is their maestro, nineteen times the assist leader, always keeping the attack sharp. Wise is the insurance plan — eight nights leading the scoring when Riley got bottled. Charlotte, though, is built for this spoiler role. Sawyer is one of the nation’s best distributors, TWENTY-ONE games leading in assists, and his vision unlocks Maddox and Sullivan on the wings. They’re balanced, opportunistic, and dangerous.

Best Wins

Butler’s résumé hammer was their 95–68 demolition of Purdue, Riley pouring in 22, Greer orchestrating with 12 assists, Wise chipping in 15. They also edged Creighton 82–78 with Riley hitting clutch shots. Charlotte shocked the world beating Louisville 62–52 on the road, Sawyer handing out 10 assists while Maddox hit 4 threes. They also clipped Dayton 74–70, Sullivan’s 19 sealing it late. Charlotte comes in with a proven ability to slay giants.

X-Factor

Wise is Butler’s swing man. When he scores in double figures, defenses can’t load up on Riley, and Greer’s passing shines. Maddox is Charlotte’s ignition. His shooting can flip the game in a matter of minutes. If Sawyer finds him early, the 12/5 curse could live again.

(4) Baylor vs. (13) Murray State

Season Overview

Baylor embodies toughness. Jeffries dominated the glass with SEVENTEEN rebounding-leader nights, bullying opponents inside. Curry carried the scoring load with ten games at the top, while Allen steadied the offense with eight assist-leader nights. Murray State is guard-heavy. Whitfield set the table eight times as assist leader, Boone exploded for five scoring-leader nights as a streak shooter, and Taylor handled the dirty work down low.

Best Wins

Baylor proved versatility. They beat Houston 96–93 in a shootout, Curry scoring 25, Allen dishing 9 assists. Then they dismantled West Virginia 82–65, Jeffries dominating with 16 rebounds. They also took down Seton Hall 77–72, Greer leading the way with balanced scoring. Murray State’s jewel was their 87–78 upset of UNLV, Boone torching them with 23, Whitfield adding 10 assists. They also snuck past Loyola 73–70 in a statement win.

X-Factor

Curry is Baylor’s swing. His perimeter shot opens space for Jeffries to dominate the paint. Boone is Murray State’s dice roll — when he’s hot, they can run with anyone. If his shot misfires, Baylor’s depth smothers them.

(6) Georgia Southern vs. (11) LSU

Season Overview

Georgia Southern thrives on physicality. Gray is their anchor, ELEVEN times leading in rebounds and shutting down paint touches. Watson set the tempo with eight assist-leader games, while Porter carried the scoring load in eight. LSU is Nash’s stage — FOURTEEN times top scorer, often singlehandedly dragging them into games. Dillon directed ten times as assist leader, Carter holding his own on the glass.

Best Wins

Georgia Southern buried Iona 81–57, Gray pulling 14 rebounds while Porter hit 21 points. They also clipped Georgia Tech 76–72 in a rivalry win. LSU’s résumé is highlighted by a stunning 84–79 win over Georgetown, Nash scoring 28, Dillon adding 9 assists. They also handled Winthrop 77–69, Nash again carrying the load with 25.

X-Factor

Porter is Georgia Southern’s swing piece. His shooting stretches defenses and lets Gray dominate inside. Dillon is LSU’s hinge. When he frees Nash for easy looks, LSU’s offense opens up. If Dillon struggles, Nash becomes predictable.

(3) Kansas State vs. (14) Iona

Season Overview

Kansas State is powered by Rendon and Walker, one of the tournament’s best duos. Rendon had SEVENTEEN scoring-leader games and TEN rebounding nights, imposing his will. Walker was the engine, NINETEEN games as assist leader, constantly feeding Rendon and controlling pace. Iona is scrappy, with Sykes distributing, Beauchamp banging the boards, and Bell flashing streak shooting to keep them alive.

Best Wins

Kansas State’s résumé hammer was their 83–80 win over Baylor, Rendon scoring 24 with 11 rebounds, Walker dealing 10 assists. They also clipped Seton Hall 76–72 in a tough Big East matchup. Iona’s shining moment was their league final, upsetting Middle Tennessee 74–71, Bell scoring 22 with 5 threes.

X-Factor

Walker is Kansas State’s swing. When he dictates pace, Rendon becomes unstoppable. Bell is Iona’s lifeline — his perimeter shooting is the only path to an upset. If he’s cold, they’re finished early.

(7) Alabama A&M vs. (10) San Diego State

Season Overview

Alabama A&M runs on buckets. Merton led SEVENTEEN times in scoring, Jackson eleven, and Wright led FIFTEEN games as either top scorer or passer. They want pace, threes, and chaos. San Diego State prefers structure, Chavez leading FOURTEEN times in assists, Ali owning ten games on the boards, Phillips chipping in as a steady scorer. It’s clash of styles at its purest.

Best Wins

Alabama A&M shocked the world beating Texas 89–80, Merton scoring 27, Wright adding 8 assists. They also clipped St. Mary’s 81–76 with balanced offense. SDSU upset Baylor 83–69, Chavez running the game with 10 assists, Ali grabbing 13 boards, Phillips scoring 19. They also beat UNLV 74–72 in a grinder.

X-Factor

Wright is Alabama A&M’s Swiss Army knife, adjusting to whatever role is needed. Chavez is SDSU’s pivot — when he sets tempo, their deliberate style frustrates scorers. Whoever imposes their pace wins.

(2) Texas vs. (15) Winthrop

Season Overview

Texas is stacked. Moeller led TWENTY-ONE games in scoring, dropping 25+ like clockwork. Wenzel dominated sixteen games on the glass, Murray chipped in EIGHTEEN as either scorer or rebounder, his versatility keeping defenses off balance. Winthrop plays through Torres, their point guard with nine assist-leader nights, and Stiles anchoring the paint with consistent rebounding.

Best Wins

The Longhorns obliterated Baylor 98–76, Moeller scoring 30 with 6 threes. They demolished Charlotte 90–66, Wenzel pulling 15 boards. They swept LSU, including an 82–64 rout where Murray had 18 points and 10 rebounds. Winthrop’s highlight was their conference final, Torres scoring 17 with 9 assists in their ticket-puncher.

X-Factor

Murray is Texas’s hinge. His ability to contribute inside and out stretches defenses thin, freeing Moeller for scoring explosions. Torres must control tempo for Winthrop; if the game gets fast, it’s over by halftime.

📍 CLEVELAND REGION

(1) Georgetown vs. (16) Northern Arizona

Season Overview

Georgetown comes into March looking like a wrecking ball. Jordan has been a two-way force, leading TWENTY-FOUR times in scoring and TWENTY-ONE in rebounding, routinely dropping double-doubles. Dennis is his running mate, pacing TWENTY-THREE games with assists and dictating tempo like a seasoned pro. Together, they make Georgetown one of the toughest outs in the field. Northern Arizona earned its way here behind Caldwell’s work in the paint and McBride’s perimeter steadiness. They’re scrappy, but stepping in against Jordan and Dennis is stepping into the lion’s den.

Best Wins

Georgetown’s résumé is loaded. They beat Akron 97–85, Jordan pouring in 28 with 13 rebounds. They stunned North Carolina 85–69, with Dennis tallying 11 assists as Jordan posted 25 and 12. They took down Alabama A&M 80–69, controlling tempo wire-to-wire. Their 85–66 demolition of Butler cemented them as a true powerhouse. Northern Arizona’s high point was a 77–72 league tournament win where Caldwell notched 16 rebounds, but outside of their conference, they faltered against higher seeds, including a 72–60 loss to Miami.

X-Factor

Dennis is Georgetown’s hinge. When he’s orchestrating at full throttle, Jordan becomes unstoppable inside. For Northern Arizona, Caldwell has to limit Jordan’s boards while McBride hits shots from deep. Without both playing the games of their lives, it’s over quickly.

(8) Miami vs. (9) West Virginia

Season Overview

Miami thrives on defense and balance. Trammell controlled the floor with nine assist-leader nights, Tolbert banged inside on the glass, and Holloway added just enough scoring to tilt tight games. They’re disciplined, defense-first, and thrive when games slow down. West Virginia is built on Nelson’s shot-making — TEN games leading in scoring, with Willis cleaning up on the boards and Bennett’s energy sparking runs. They’re streaky but dangerous when Nelson’s dialed in.

Best Wins

Miami proved themselves beating LSU 75–59, Trammell notching 8 assists. They stifled Alabama A&M 58–40, suffocating Merton into 4-of-15 shooting. They also downed Northern Arizona 72–60 with Tolbert pulling 12 rebounds. West Virginia’s jewel was upsetting Baylor 79–76, Nelson exploding for 29 while Willis grabbed 11 rebounds. They also edged Kansas State 74–72 in a game where Bennett’s defense sealed it late.

X-Factor

For Miami, Holloway must bring scoring to complement their defense. Without his jumper, they’re too one-dimensional. For WVU, Nelson is the whole swing. If he catches fire, they can topple Miami; if not, they’re stuck grinding against the Hurricanes’ wall.

(5) Akron vs. (12) Stanford/Houston

Season Overview

Akron’s formula is balance and toughness. Bryant led FIFTEEN times in scoring, Carr ran point in ten games, and Moore provided a steady rebounding presence. They play smart and mistake-free. Stanford relies on Cardenas, their scoring ace, with SEVENTEEN games leading in points and carrying the offense when shots get tight. Houston is Clarke’s showcase — THIRTY assist-leader games and SIXTEEN scoring-leader nights, literally running their offense through him every night. They’re a dangerous 12-seed duo.

Best Wins

Akron clipped Georgia Southern 74–70, Bryant scoring 21 while Moore grabbed 11 rebounds. They also beat Ohio State 68–66 in a rivalry clash with Carr dishing 8 assists. Stanford’s gem was beating Louisville 69–68, Cardenas scoring 26 with 6 threes, showing they can slay giants. Houston nearly toppled Baylor 93–90 behind Clarke’s 28 points and 12 assists, then gave Texas a 96–92 scare. Those losses still prove they’re dangerous.

X-Factor

Moore’s rebounding keeps Akron afloat, while Bryant has to find efficient scoring. For Stanford, Cardenas must shoulder 20+ points to give them hope. Clarke is Houston’s all-in card — if he posts another double-double with points and assists, Akron could be in real trouble.

(4) UNLV vs. (13) Coppin State

Season Overview

UNLV comes in with offensive firepower. Maxwell led TWENTY-FIVE games in scoring, regularly throwing up 20+ nights. Burns provided secondary scoring punch, while Lyons topped rebounding charts in double-digit games. Coppin State isn’t deep, but they have Egan as a primary scorer and Weeks running the point, leading twelve games in assists and keeping them organized. They’ll need everything clicking to hang with the Rebels.

Best Wins

UNLV beat Iona 87–78, Maxwell scoring 31 and Burns chipping in 18. They handled San Diego State 83–69, with Lyons dominating the boards for 14 rebounds. They also clipped Creighton 79–75, Maxwell again pouring in 28. Coppin State’s best résumé line was winning their league final 74–70, Weeks tallying 9 assists and Egan scoring 22. They haven’t proven it against elite teams.

X-Factor

Maxwell is the obvious swing for UNLV. When his jumper is falling, UNLV’s offense becomes overwhelming. Weeks must set up Coppin State’s shooters and keep turnovers low. If he cracks, UNLV runs away with it.

(6) Middle Tennessee vs. (11) American

Season Overview

Middle Tennessee is Casper’s team. He led TWELVE times in scoring and ELEVEN in rebounding, a nightly double-double threat. Dudley steadied them with TWELVE games atop the assist column, while Mack added secondary offense. American leans on Wormley, who had SEVEN games leading in scoring and NINE in assists, doing a little bit of everything. Morales and Guinn supported him on the glass, but the Eagles are top-heavy.

Best Wins

Middle Tennessee proved their worth against San Diego State, Casper posting 22 points with 13 rebounds in a gritty win. They also clipped Murray State 71–68, Dudley adding 10 assists. American’s résumé is thinner, but they pushed Georgetown into the second half before fading, Wormley recording 17 points and 7 assists in the near-shocker.

X-Factor

Dudley frees Casper to dominate inside. If Dudley runs the show cleanly, Casper’s life gets easier. Wormley has to deliver across the board for American — scoring, passing, defending. If he falters in any area, it’s lights out.

(3) NC State vs. (14) Bellarmine

Season Overview

NC State is built on Rendon and Walker. Rendon led SEVENTEEN times in scoring and TEN in rebounding, punishing defenses inside and out. Walker was their orchestrator, NINETEEN games as assist leader, constantly keeping the Wolfpack balanced. Bellarmine is powered by Mayes, who led NINETEEN times in scoring and ELEVEN in rebounding, while Ellis directed traffic. They’re not deep, but Mayes is a star in his own right.

Best Wins

NC State has maybe the best résumé in the field: they beat Murray State, LSU, Stanford, Miami, and most importantly, they beat Notre Dame TWICE. Those scalps scream contender. Bellarmine’s peak was their league final, Mayes scoring 30 with 12 rebounds to send them dancing. They haven’t proven it against top-25 foes.

X-Factor

Walker is NC State’s swing piece. His playmaking makes Rendon unguardable. Mayes has to go nuclear — another 30-point effort — for Bellarmine to have a chance.

(7) Louisville vs. (10) Indiana State

Season Overview

Louisville spread the load all year. Reynolds led twelve times in scoring, Allen ten in assists, and Davis dominated the boards. They rely on balance and depth, not one superstar. Indiana State is built around O’Neal, who led TEN times in scoring, supported by Porter on the glass and quick-hitting guards who push pace. They’ve got upset potential if O’Neal gets rolling.

Best Wins

Louisville’s résumé is strong: they beat Charlotte 62–52, handled Miami 68–60, clipped NC State 66–59, edged Stanford 69–68, and even topped North Carolina 70–59. That’s five tournament-caliber wins. Indiana State’s headline was upsetting Creighton 79–75, O’Neal scoring 23 with Porter grabbing 12 rebounds. They also beat Butler 76–74 late in the year, showing toughness.

X-Factor

Allen’s passing makes Louisville go. If he gets Reynolds going early, the Cardinals roll. O’Neal is Indiana State’s hope. If he scores 20+ and gets to the line, they’ve got a shot at the upset.

(2) North Carolina vs. (15) SIU Edwardsville

Season Overview

UNC is powered by Clyburn, their dominant forward who led EIGHTEEN games in rebounding and TEN in scoring. Harper fills gaps everywhere, while Green stabilizes on both ends. They’re athletic, deep, and seasoned for March. SIU Edwardsville is Carter’s team, nine times their scoring leader, with supporting cast filling in around him. They’re gritty but undersized.

Best Wins

North Carolina has résumé gold: they beat Louisville 95–84, thrashed NC State 89–62, handled Stanford 65–50, and blasted Miami 80–63. Every one of those teams is dancing, and UNC dominated. SIUE’s résumé is their league tournament, Carter scoring 19 in the final to send them through.

X-Factor

Harper’s versatility makes UNC unguardable, whether scoring or facilitating. Carter has to play the game of his life — scoring 25+, hitting from deep — just to keep SIUE competitive.

📍 MIDWEST REGION (Oklahoma City)

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Detroit Mercy

Season Overview

This isn’t just a one-seed — it’s North Carolina, a blue blood that plays like a steamroller. Clyburn is their anchor, EIGHTEEN times the rebounding leader and TEN more as the scoring leader, routinely putting up double-doubles. Harper brings glue-guy versatility, scoring, passing, and defending all in one package, while Green stabilizes possessions on both ends. Detroit Mercy arrives from a Cinderella league run, carried by Daniels in the backcourt, who had multiple 20+ point games, and Thompson inside, who led nine games in rebounding. They’re scrappy, but the size and depth gap here is overwhelming.

Best Wins

Carolina’s résumé is terrifying. They beat Louisville 95–84, with Clyburn’s 15 rebounds sparking fast breaks. They demolished NC State 89–62, Harper adding 16 points and 7 assists. They handled Stanford 65–50, Green chipping in 12 rebounds, and outclassed Miami 80–63, Harper notching 18. Those are all tournament teams — and all decisive wins. Detroit Mercy’s shining moment came in their league final, Daniels scoring 22 with 5 threes, while Thompson pulled 11 boards. That was enough to punch their ticket, but this is a massive step up.

X-Factor

For UNC, Harper is the pivot. His ability to defend multiple positions and score efficiently makes Clyburn nearly unguardable. For Detroit Mercy, Daniels must catch fire from deep and Thompson must own the glass, or this one’s over by halftime.

(8) Kentucky vs. (9) La Salle

Season Overview

Kentucky brings brand-name swagger, but this year’s squad is more about balance than star dominance. Reynolds topped twelve games as leading scorer, Allen ran the point with ten assist-leader nights, and Davis controlled the boards across the SEC grind. La Salle isn’t afraid of anyone, riding Rivera’s hot hand — FOURTEEN times the scoring leader, often pushing 25+ points — while Bradley gives them interior toughness. It’s a battle between a blue-blood and a program hungry to prove it belongs.

Best Wins

Kentucky notched résumé wins like beating Florida State 72–65, Reynolds scoring 20 with Allen dishing 8 assists, and outlasting Indiana State 70–67, Davis pulling 13 rebounds. They also beat Auburn in a key conference showdown. La Salle’s jewel was shocking Seton Hall 83–78, Rivera pouring in 28 with 6 triples. They also clipped Villanova 77–73 late in the season, a statement that they can tangle with the Big East’s best.

X-Factor

Allen is Kentucky’s swing man. When he distributes at a high level, their offense hums, and Reynolds gets cleaner looks. Rivera is La Salle’s lifeline. If he gets hot from deep, Kentucky’s defense will be scrambling all night.

(5) Florida State vs. (12) Campbell/VCU

Season Overview

Florida State leans heavily on Morris, their scoring ace with THIRTEEN top-scorer games, capable of exploding for 25+ on any given night. Gaines anchors the interior, eleven times pacing them in rebounding, while Phelps runs the backcourt. Campbell comes through Robinson, who had NINE games leading in assists and thrives at pushing tempo, while VCU relies on Hampton, a streak scorer who can heat up quickly, plus guards who spread the floor. Whoever wins that play-in will enter with momentum and belief.

Best Wins

Florida State posted résumé wins like Clemson 88–79, Morris scoring 24 while Gaines added 13 rebounds, and Georgia Southern 76–70, Phelps contributing 8 assists. They also beat Miami in a tight 72–68 ACC battle. Campbell’s highlight was pushing Louisville to the wire before falling 73–70, Robinson posting 10 assists. VCU had a marquee win over Richmond 78–74, Hampton dropping 22. Both programs showed they can rise up.

X-Factor

For Florida State, Morris must be efficient. If he scores early, their length and defense can take over. For Campbell, Robinson’s passing keeps them alive, while for VCU, Hampton is their hope — if he explodes, the Seminoles could sweat.

(4) Wichita State vs. (13) NJIT

Season Overview

Wichita State is deep and balanced. Harper topped SIXTEEN games as scoring leader, often in the 18–22 point range, while Davis dominated the glass in ELEVEN contests, and Johnson ran the show with TEN assist-leader nights. They defend, they rebound, they move the ball. NJIT comes in with Lopez, their offensive star who had EIGHT scoring-leader games, and Hall cleaning the glass, providing a presence inside.

Best Wins

The Shockers showed strength beating Creighton 82–77, Harper scoring 23 with Johnson adding 8 assists. They also handled Oregon 74–66, Davis grabbing 14 rebounds, and took down St. Bonaventure 69–62, Harper notching 21. NJIT’s crown moment was stunning Princeton 73–70 in their league final, Lopez scoring 19 and Hall adding 12 rebounds. That was their ticket punch, but against a top-four seed, it’s a massive leap.

X-Factor

Johnson is Wichita’s swing. When he distributes effectively, Harper becomes lethal and Davis dominates inside. Lopez must score at least 20+ for NJIT to hang around. Without him, they’ll get run off the floor.

(6) Creighton vs. (11) Alabama

Season Overview

Creighton is powered by Miller, their scoring leader FOURTEEN times, often stretching defenses with his shooting. Parker stabilizes as the point guard with TEN assist-leader games, and Jackson provides rebounding muscle with EIGHT nights atop the stat sheet. Alabama counters with Henderson, their star who led in scoring TWELVE games, capable of going off for 30, supported by Caldwell on the glass and guard depth behind him.

Best Wins

Creighton posted wins like Marquette 79–75, Miller scoring 26, Parker adding 9 assists, and Texas A&M 81–76, Jackson pulling 12 rebounds. They also beat Seton Hall 74–70 in a conference grinder. Alabama’s résumé highlight was upsetting Mississippi State 77–70, Henderson scoring 29, Caldwell anchoring the defense with 12 boards. They also took down Florida in SEC play, proving they can hang.

X-Factor

Miller is Creighton’s swing — if he shoots efficiently, Creighton’s offense explodes. Henderson must carry Alabama with another 25+ point night; if he’s slowed, their upset hopes collapse.

(3) Seton Hall vs. (14) Grand Canyon

Season Overview

Seton Hall is balanced but star-driven. Simmons is their go-to scorer, FIFTEEN times leading in points and comfortable putting up 20+ nightly. Lewis is their backcourt distributor with ELEVEN assist-leader games, while Carter patrols the paint. Grand Canyon isn’t afraid, led by Bryant, their scoring leader TEN times, and Hughes providing muscle on the boards.

Best Wins

Seton Hall stacked wins like Indiana State 84–76, Simmons scoring 27. They also handled Florida State 88–77, with Lewis dishing 10 assists, and clipped UNLV 80–72, Carter posting 13 rebounds. Grand Canyon’s shining moment was upsetting New Mexico 73–71 in their league final, Bryant scoring 24 with Hughes adding 12 rebounds.

X-Factor

Simmons is Seton Hall’s hammer — when he scores efficiently, everything opens up. For Grand Canyon, Bryant must deliver a 25+ performance. Without it, they can’t keep up.

(7) UTSA vs. (10) Indiana State

Season Overview

UTSA thrives on Diaz, who paced ELEVEN games as their top scorer and often carried them through tight finishes. Wilson orchestrates as their assist leader, while supporting pieces provide depth. Indiana State counters with O’Neal, TEN times their leading scorer, and Porter cleaning up the boards consistently, giving them a bruising interior presence. Both teams know how to play tough.

Best Wins

UTSA knocked off Arizona State 76–71, Diaz scoring 23 with Wilson adding 7 assists, and beat St. Mary’s 82–79, a big-time résumé builder. Indiana State upset Creighton 79–75, O’Neal scoring 24 while Porter grabbed 13 rebounds, and they clipped Butler late in the season 74–71. Both have proven they can take down bigger names.

X-Factor

Diaz must carry UTSA with efficient scoring. If he gets 20+, they become dangerous. O’Neal is Indiana State’s lifeline — if he goes shot-for-shot with Diaz, this becomes one of the best games of the round.

(2) St. Mary’s vs. (15) SIU Edwardsville

Season Overview

St. Mary’s is steady and dangerous. Taylor paced them FIFTEEN times in scoring, Clark dished as their assist leader in NINE games, and Davis dominated ten games on the boards. Their system is disciplined, and they’ve beaten big names. SIU Edwardsville comes in leaning on Carter, their scoring leader NINE times, the clear go-to man, with role players filling in around him.

Best Wins

The Gaels’ résumé is impressive: they beat Oregon 73–69, Taylor scoring 22, Clark adding 7 assists. They clipped Creighton 79–74, Davis pulling 14 rebounds, and went toe-to-toe with Texas before falling late. SIUE’s résumé rests on their league title win, Carter scoring 19 with 4 threes. They have no high-major scalps.

X-Factor

Taylor makes St. Mary’s hum — if he’s hot, they’re scary. Carter must score 25+ and hit from deep for SIUE to stay competitive.

📍 WEST REGION (Anaheim)

(1) Louisville vs. (16) Cal State Fullerton/Navy

Season Overview

Louisville is a one-seed for a reason. Reynolds has been their scoring ace, TWELVE times pacing the Cardinals, while Allen ran the offense in TEN games as assist leader, and Davis did the dirty work inside. They’re balanced, disciplined, and loaded with depth. Cal State Fullerton relies on Jones, their perimeter gunner who has caught fire multiple times this season, while Navy leans on Watkins, their rebounding machine who led in double-digit games on the glass. Both play-in teams earned their shot, but this is a massive climb.

Best Wins

Louisville owns one of the tournament’s best résumés. They clipped Charlotte 62–52, Reynolds scoring 21. They beat Miami 68–60, Allen handing out 9 assists. They handled NC State 66–59, Davis anchoring the paint with 12 boards. They edged Stanford 69–68, Reynolds sealing it late, and outdueled North Carolina 70–59, a statement win over a blue blood. Fullerton’s highlight was a 74–71 league win with Jones scoring 23. Navy’s ticket came via a 65–62 nail-biter in their final, Watkins pulling 15 rebounds.

X-Factor

Allen makes Louisville elite — when his passing gets Reynolds clean looks, they’re almost impossible to slow down. For Fullerton, Jones must hit 5+ threes to keep it interesting. For Navy, Watkins must dominate the boards. Anything short of spectacular, and it’s a rout.

(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Oregon

Season Overview

Pittsburgh relies on Brown’s shot-making, eleven times their top scorer, with Harris running the show in eight assist-leader nights and Williams helping on the glass. They want control and pace. Oregon is versatile, Lopez leading NINE games in scoring, while Foster dominated the boards, and their guard rotation kept them steady. Both teams are capable, but streaky.

Best Wins

Pitt downed Coppin State 77–70, Brown scoring 22, and outlasted Georgia Southern 73–68, Harris dishing 8 assists. They also upset Virginia Tech 70–67, Brown again scoring 20+. Oregon took down Arizona State 72–66, Lopez pouring in 25, and survived Utah 75–73, Foster grabbing 13 rebounds. They also beat Colorado 78–74 to close strong.

X-Factor

Harris is Pitt’s pivot — when he controls tempo, Brown thrives. Lopez is Oregon’s lifeline. If he cracks 20+ again, the Ducks are dangerous. If not, Pitt has the edge.

(5) Minnesota vs. (12) St. Bonaventure

Season Overview

Minnesota thrives on balance. Jackson led TEN games in scoring, Wright was a rebounding beast, and Young topped EIGHT contests as assist leader. They grind and win close ones. St. Bonaventure runs through Green, their star with TWELVE top-scorer nights, while Holloway is a rebounding anchor who fights inside.

Best Wins

Minnesota took down Michigan 70–66, Jackson scoring 23. They clipped Illinois 74–70, Wright pulling 14 rebounds, and beat Wisconsin 68–64 with Young contributing 9 assists. St. Bonaventure’s jewel was upsetting Dayton 65–62, Green scoring 26, plus they edged VCU 72–70 in league play, Holloway adding 13 rebounds.

X-Factor

Jackson is Minnesota’s closer — if he’s scoring late, they win. Green must go for 25+ for the Bonnies to sniff the upset.

(4) Incarnate Word vs. (13) Arizona State

Season Overview

Incarnate Word is the Cinderella seed. Sanchez was a monster, NINETEEN games leading in scoring and ELEVEN more in rebounding, putting up regular double-doubles. Alvarez complements him with playmaking and perimeter shooting. Arizona State rides Johnson, their scoring guard who can heat up quickly, supported by long athletes across the wings.

Best Wins

UIW stunned Oregon 81–74, Sanchez scoring 28 with 14 rebounds. Then they shocked Gonzaga 88–83, Alvarez dishing 10 assists. They also handled SMU 79–72, proving it wasn’t a fluke. Arizona State’s résumé highlight was a 79–75 win over Colorado, Johnson scoring 24, plus beating Utah 73–70 in league play.

X-Factor

Sanchez is everything for UIW — if he posts another 25-and-12 line, they’re tough. Johnson must explode offensively for ASU; if he’s quiet, they don’t have the depth.

(6) Gonzaga vs. (11) Fresno State

Season Overview

Gonzaga isn’t as dominant as past years, but they’re dangerous. Smith led TWELVE games in scoring, Martin owned the glass in NINE, and Daniels dished assists in NINE more. Fresno State lives through Jones, who paced ELEVEN scoring nights, with Wilson rebounding and Carter setting teammates up. They’re scrappy and physical.

Best Wins

Gonzaga beat Oregon 84–79, Smith scoring 23. They beat Arizona State 77–69, Martin pulling 12 boards, and handled San Francisco 81–74 with Daniels tallying 9 assists. Fresno State upset UNLV 83–78, Jones scoring 27, and also clipped Nevada 74–70 behind Wilson’s 13 rebounds.

X-Factor

Smith must be Gonzaga’s lead scorer for them to separate. Jones is Fresno’s hope — if he drops another 25+, the Bulldogs could make it a fight.

(3) South Dakota State vs. (14) FDU

Season Overview

South Dakota State is balanced and explosive. Hansen was their scorer, FIFTEEN times leading with 20+ point games, Cooper rebounded in TWELVE contests, and Mason dished ELEVEN times as assist leader. FDU comes in behind Robinson’s scoring, who led nine games, and Perez’s playmaking, which kept them organized.

Best Wins

SDSU stunned Minnesota 81–75, Hansen dropping 29. They shocked Indiana State 84–78, Cooper pulling 13 rebounds, and also rolled through Oral Roberts 79–71. FDU’s highlight was their league final, a 74–72 buzzer-beater over Wagner, Robinson scoring 21 with Perez adding 8 assists.

X-Factor

Hansen is the closer — if he gets rolling, SDSU can bury teams. Robinson must score 25+ to give FDU hope; anything less, and it’s one-sided.

(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) Illinois

Season Overview

Oklahoma State relies on Harris, their scoring leader in TEN games, backed by Mitchell inside and Bryant setting the table. They grind teams down. Illinois is Adams’s stage, ELEVEN games leading in scoring, with Ross orchestrating as point guard and versatile wings backing them up.

Best Wins

OSU’s headline win was 80–78 over Kansas State, Harris scoring 23, Mitchell adding 12 boards. They also beat Iowa State 74–70 late in the season. Illinois upset Michigan State 77–74, Adams pouring in 28, and clipped Ohio State 71–69, Ross tallying 8 assists. Both résumés show toughness.

X-Factor

Harris must score efficiently to carry OSU. Adams is Illinois’s hope — when he attacks relentlessly, Illinois becomes a dangerous 10-seed.

(2) USC vs. (15) Wofford

Season Overview

USC is loaded with star power. Douglas was their alpha scorer, SEVENTEEN games pacing the Trojans with 20+ points. Baker orchestrated, TWELVE times leading in assists, while Carter dominated the glass in ELEVEN contests. Wofford is undersized but scrappy, Smith their lead guard and primary scorer, with role players around him.

Best Wins

USC owns an elite résumé: they beat Arizona 85–79, Douglas scoring 26. They beat Oregon 88–81, Baker adding 11 assists, and stunned Gonzaga 82–75, Carter grabbing 14 rebounds. Wofford’s signature was upsetting Mercer in their league final, Smith scoring 22.

X-Factor

Douglas is USC’s killer — when he scores efficiently, USC looks like a Final Four team. Smith must score big and hit threes for Wofford; without him, the Terriers don’t have the firepower.

IN GAME DATE: March 13