📄 2043 Bubble Watch: Update Feb 27th

The updated CBGM Bubble Watch is out. Check out who’s potentially in and who’s potentially out.

Power Programs in Peril

The “teams who are out” column is stacked with recognizable brands — programs that fans are used to penciling into the bracket, but whose résumés are coming up short this season:

Creighton Bluejays (19–10, 10–8, NET: 68) – A respectable Big East record, but Creighton’s efficiency profile isn’t doing them any favors. Without marquee wins, they’re hovering just outside the field.

Ole Miss Rebels (19–10, 9–7, NET: 62) – The Rebels have held their own in SEC play, but their NET sits in dangerous territory. They need a late push to separate from the pack.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (18–11, 9–9, NET: 60) – A .500 conference record has left Miami vulnerable. The résumé lacks the kind of quality wins that would lock in an at-large bid.

Missouri Tigers (16–11, 9–7, NET: 64) – Missouri’s record suggests bubble safety, but the metrics say otherwise. They’re walking a tightrope as Selection Sunday approaches.

Syracuse Orange (16–11, 10–8, NET: 92) – A familiar March name, but this year’s numbers simply aren’t there. Syracuse is well outside typical at-large standards.

Michigan Wolverines (14–13, 10–8, NET: 93) – A losing overall record paired with a weak NET has Michigan firmly on the wrong side of the bubble.

For these programs, the message is unmistakable: brand value doesn’t outweigh metrics. Without late-season wins and NET improvement, even power-conference résumés won’t be enough.

Mid-Majors Stepping Up

On the “teams that are in” side, it’s a wave of mid-majors and fringe leagues forcing their way into the conversation with strong records and tournament-ready profiles:

Rhode Island Rams (20–7, 12–4, NET: 47) – A top-50 NET and consistent Atlantic 10 play have Rhode Island safely inside the field.

Indiana State Sycamores (23–6, 15–3, NET: 53) – One of the most impressive résumés outside the power conferences, Indiana State has dominated league play.

Portland State Vikings (20–7, 13–3, NET: 36) – With an elite NET for a mid-major, Portland State looks like a lock if they avoid a late stumble.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (20–7, 13–3, NET: 40) – Strong conference results and solid efficiency metrics keep MTSU firmly in tournament position.

Charleston Cougars (22–7, 14–2, NET: 48) – Another mid-major proving that wins plus metrics matter. Charleston’s profile is difficult to ignore.

FDU Knights (19–9, 11–4, NET: 54) – FDU sits right on the edge, but their résumé currently holds up against many power-conference hopefuls.

Just below them, teams like St. Thomas, Boston University, and Winthrop are lurking — close enough to pounce if chaos hits the bubble.

The Bottom Line

The contrast couldn’t be clearer. Traditional names like Michigan, Syracuse, and Missouri are watching their margins evaporate, while programs such as Portland State, Indiana State, and Charleston are earning their spots the hard way.

If this trend holds, March could once again belong to the outsiders — with fewer household names and more hungry mid-majors ready to turn the bracket upside down.

Good luck to everyone.