📄 2042 Bubble Watch: Update Feb 13th

The updated CBGM Bubble Watch is out. Check out who’s potentially in and who’s potentially out.

Power Programs at Risk of Missing Out

On the “teams who are out” side, the list is packed with schools that would normally be penciled into March without hesitation:

• Tennessee Volunteers (16–9, 7–5, NET: 61) – A strong SEC record keeps them alive, but middling efficiency numbers are hurting. The Vols are in danger of squandering their pedigree if they don’t close strong.

• Oregon Ducks (16–9, 10–4, NET: 81) – The Pac-12 isn’t offering many high-end wins this year. Oregon’s name carries weight, but their profile is too shaky for comfort.

• Colorado Buffaloes (14–11, 7–7, NET: 80) – Hovering around .500 in league play won’t cut it, and their margin for error is gone.

• Pepperdine Waves (13–10, 9–3, NET: 57) – Strong WCC standing, but with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s dominating, the Waves need marquee wins.

• Michigan State Spartans (15–9, 9–5, NET: 87) – Tom Izzo’s group has a winning record in the Big Ten, but poor metrics leave them at serious risk of missing their first tournament in years.

• Syracuse Orange (13–11, 7–7, NET: 90) – The Orange have been clinging to bubble life for years, but this résumé looks more NIT than NCAA.

• Maryland Terrapins (13–11, 7–7, NET: 96) – The Terps’ metrics scream mediocrity. Without a late run, their bid chances will evaporate.

These are programs with long tournament histories and large fanbases, but right now, reputation alone isn’t enough. The selection committee will demand better numbers down the stretch.

Mid-Major Programs Forcing Their Way In

On the flip side, the “teams that are in” list features plenty of mid-major hopefuls who are putting together legitimate at-large resumes.

• NJIT Highlanders (18–6, 10–1, NET: 43) – A remarkable turnaround season, NJIT has built a strong record and efficiency metrics that make them tough to ignore.

• Charlotte 49ers (16–8, 11–1, NET: 62) – Conference dominance and a solid NET ranking push Charlotte toward an at-large conversation few expected.

• App State Mountaineers (17–6, 10–2, NET: 63) – Their balanced résumé, including conference strength, keeps them in the mix.

• LIU Sharks (17–7, 9–2, NET: 65) – LIU sits high in their league standings with efficiency numbers that match bubble-level teams.

• Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (17–7, 12–3, NET: 75) – Another mid-major climbing steadily, Bakersfield’s conference strength could provide just enough juice.

• Northern Kentucky Norse (16–7, 11–4, NET: 98) – Sitting just inside the cut line, their at-large case hinges on finishing strong.

These schools may not have the history of Michigan State or Tennessee, but the committee values metrics and wins. With NET rankings in the 40s, 50s, and 60s, many of these mid-majors compare favorably to the struggling high-major brands.

The Bottom Line

The bubble is tilted. Big-name programs like Michigan State, Tennessee, Oregon, and Syracuse are sweating out their résumés, while NJIT, Charlotte, and App State are seizing the moment.

For fans, it’s a reminder: in today’s college basketball, the committee rewards results, not reputation. March could feature fewer bluebloods and more fresh faces—making this bubble season one of the most unpredictable in years.