📄 2042 Bubble Watch: Update Mar 8th

The updated CBGM Bubble Watch is out. Check out who’s potentially in and who’s potentially out.

Power Programs on the Outside Looking In

Several heavyweights need to treat their conference tournaments like play-in rounds:

• Michigan State Spartans (20–14, 9–7, NET: 58) – The Spartans’ record keeps them in the conversation, but a weak NET means they’ll need at least a semifinal run in the Big Ten to feel safe.

• Houston Cougars (17–12, 11–9, NET: 80) – A middling résumé by Houston’s standards. They likely need to reach the AAC title game to be considered.

• Arizona Wildcats (17–12, 10–10, NET: 71) – Once a lock, Arizona now looks like a team that must prove itself in Las Vegas. A quick exit could seal their fate.

• Missouri Tigers (19–10, 12–6, NET: 78) – A solid SEC record isn’t enough without better efficiency metrics. They’ll need quality wins in Nashville.

• Marquette Golden Eagles (19–11, 10–10, NET: 79) – An even Big East mark and sub-80 NET is shaky. A semifinal run at Madison Square Garden is mandatory.

• Maryland Terrapins (16–14, 10–10, NET: 93) – The Terps sit firmly in “win the conference tournament or bust” territory.

Mid-Majors Fighting for At-Large Consideration

Some mid-majors are close, but still need a strong showing to avoid being left out:

• Charleston Cougars (21–9, 14–4, NET: 53) – Good record, but the metrics don’t guarantee safety. A run to the CAA title game is a must.

• UAB Blazers (21–11, 10–8, NET: 72) – Hanging near the bubble, UAB can’t afford an early loss in the American tourney.

• Princeton Tigers (23–9, 9–5, NET: 66) – The Ivy doesn’t get multiple bids often. Princeton needs to win the league tournament or at least make the final.

• MD Eastern Shore Hawks (22–9, 9–5, NET: 61) – The NET is decent, but the strength of schedule is suspect. A conference crown is the safest route.

• St. Thomas Tommies (21–10, 14–6, NET: 60) – Great record, but lack of marquee wins. A Summit League title run is mandatory.

• Boston University Terriers (22–9, 13–5, NET: 62) – Similar to Princeton, BU’s at-large case is thin without a deep run.

Who’s Safest Right Now?

On the “in” side, schools like Tennessee (NET: 49), American (NET: 44), and Campbell (NET: 31) look far more comfortable — though nothing is guaranteed. Meanwhile, strong mid-majors such as Lindenwood, NJIT, and Seattle are boosting their résumés and inching toward lock status.

The Bottom Line

For bubble teams, the regular season is over — but the season-defining tests are about to begin. Programs like Michigan State, Arizona, and Marquette can’t rely on reputation. Meanwhile, Charleston and UAB know their March dreams hinge on avoiding an early stumble.

In other words: conference tournaments are the new play-in games.

Good luck to everyone.