📄 2044 Bubble Watch: Update Mar 6th

The updated CBGM Bubble Watch is out. Check out who’s potentially in and who’s potentially out.

Power Programs in Peril

The “teams who are out” column is filled with major-conference names that usually expect to hear their name called on Selection Sunday, but right now the résumés are not strong enough:

Tennessee Volunteers (19–12, 12–6, NET: 59) – Tennessee has a strong enough conference mark to stay in the conversation, but being outside the field with a NET near 60 shows how fragile the profile is.

Arizona State Sun Devils (20–11, 13–7, NET: 70) – Twenty wins looks good on the surface, but the NET is keeping Arizona State from feeling safe. They need a late push to move from bubble trouble to real security.

Vanderbilt Commodores (18–11, 11–7, NET: 71) – Vanderbilt has done enough in league play to stay alive, but the overall résumé still lacks the strength of a true lock. They are sitting in dangerous territory.

Creighton Blue Jays (18–12, 11–9, NET: 75) – Creighton has the name value and enough wins to stay relevant, but the efficiency profile is weak for an at-large team. The Blue Jays need quality wins in a hurry.

Michigan Wolverines (16–14, 11–9, NET: 91) – Michigan is the clearest example that conference record alone is not enough. A shaky overall record and a NET in the 90s leave the Wolverines well outside the bracket.

For these programs, the message is simple: reputation does not outweigh results. Without stronger wins and better metrics, the door could stay closed.

Mid-Majors Stepping Up

On the “teams that are in” side, several mid-majors are making the most of the opportunity and building tournament cases stronger than some power-conference hopefuls:

App State Mountaineers (22–7, 16–2, NET: 37) – App State has one of the strongest profiles on either side of the bubble. A top-40 NET and dominant league record make them look safely in.

Incarnate Word Cardinals (23–6, 19–1, NET: 46) – Twenty-three wins and a top-50 NET is no fluke. Incarnate Word has built a résumé that deserves serious respect.

Bucknell Bison (20–9, 15–3, NET: 49) – Bucknell has the kind of profile bubble teams want: strong record, excellent league finish, and a NET inside the top 50. That is a sturdy case.

FDU Knights (21–8, 15–1, NET: 60) – FDU is closer to the line than the others, but the win total and league dominance have them on the right side for now.

Utah Tech Trailblazers (21–8, 13–3, NET: 63) – Utah Tech is another team proving that winning matters. They are not comfortable, but they have done enough to be inside the field at this stage.

The Bottom Line

The contrast is sharp. Tennessee, Creighton, and Michigan are still carrying the weight of their names, but the numbers are not backing them up. Meanwhile, App State, Incarnate Word, and Bucknell are doing exactly what bubble teams need to do: stack wins, dominate league play, and force the committee to take them seriously.

If this holds, the bubble will not be decided by reputation. It will be decided by results — and right now, the mid-majors are making the stronger case.

Good luck to everyone.