Season 2021 Preview

Conference Rankings – Preseason | Team Previews | Best of the Sun Belt

Best Offense, Best Defense, Top Returning Players, Top Newcomers

Conference Rankings – Preseason

1. Appalachian State
2. Georgia Southern
3. South Alabama
4. Little Rock
5. Texas State
6. Coastal Carolina
7. UL-Lafayette
8. UL-Monroe
9. Georgia State
10. Arkansas State
11. UT-Arlington
12. Troy

Team Previews

#12.  Troy

The team predicted to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt in Season 1 are the Trojans of Troy.  The Trojans have major issues at their guard spots.  Our analysts have them ranked as both the worst scoring and worst passing team in the conference.  I can’t see them overcoming both a lack of quality scoring options and a backcourt that will be outmatched nightly during conference play.  The silver lining is that they do have a solid pair of SR forwards in 6’7 PF Daniel Mitchell and 6’7 PF Tim Hyle.  The Trojans will need really efficient production from those two if they hope to prove us wrong and force someone else into the bottom spot.

#11.  UT-Arlington

This prediction may surprise some because the Mavericks’ top 5-6 guys can play with anyone in the Sun Belt.  However, there is virtually no depth behind them and that is going to make it very difficult to win league games.  The Mavericks won’t make it easy for teams.  They take care of the ball, are a solid shooting team, and should have one of the league’s better scoring guards in 6’0 SR Chico Leis — an undersized sharpshooter. Unfortunately for Mavs nation, they have other big holes in addition to the depth issues. We have them rated as both the worst rebounding and the least athletic team in the conference.  We expect the talent at the top of their lineup to keep them out of the last spot.  But the lack of depth and struggles on the glass will be too much for UT-Arlington in Season 1. 

#10.  Arkansas State

Arkansas State doesn’t really have a premier player and they aren’t very deep. But what they do have is an identity. That gives them a small nod over UT-Arlington.  We have them rated as one of the better defensive teams in the league. We expect them to really lean on their defense and slow games down.  The downside is they’re fairly turnover prone and that may burn them in low possession games. We also have them ranked as the best interior scoring team in the league.  That could be an advantage as there aren’t many strong interior defenses in the Sun Belt and the Red Wolves have the largest man in Arkansas — 7’4 SR J.J. Miller.  His paint production will be really important for Arkansas State offensively.  They’ll surround him with some capable outside shooting and look to establish a consistent inside-out game.  And behind that inside-out balance, the Red Wolves could manufacture a few upsets this season.

#9.  Georgia State

Georgia State will be an interesting team in Season 1.  They barely nudged out Arkansas State for the #9 spot.  Similar to the Red Wolves, they don’t have any premier players.  However, they have positional depth and should be able to run a fairly deep bench.  Those two things will help them win just enough games to get out of the bottom 3 spots.  Keith Stoneking is a solid lead guard that can both score and facilitate. He’s not a top lead guard in the Sun Belt but he seems well positioned to be Georgia State’s most productive player.  Unfortunately, we have the Panthers rated as the worst defensive team in the conference.  Normally, that’d lead to a bottom 3 finish, but the teams behind them also have major flaws.  They’re not a great scoring team, but we expect them to produce just enough to get the job done.  The bottom line is we expect their depth to be a key advantage over the bottom 3 teams. 

#8.  UL-Monroe

The Warhawks are the second team we’ve covered with a clear identity — they defend and rebound.  That should be enough to make them competitive in the Sun Belt.  The team is led by arguably the best individual defender in the league — JR Eddie Grace.  The most obvious flaw for UL-Monroe is that they don’t have a true PG.  They have 3 FR on the roster, but two are very poor passers at the moment.  That is usually a recipe for disaster. The coaching staff will have to get creative but the Warhawks have guys who can play multiple positions. They may take some lumps early in the season, but I think they’ll have a solid rotation in place by the time conference play comes around. They’ll be turnover prone and may struggle to score, but we expect them to be competitive. 

#7.  UL-Lafayette

The UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns may be the biggest wildcard in the Sun Belt.  They could be a team that really clicks and makes a push into the top 5 or they could be a team that falls into the bottom 3.  They’re not elite at really any aspect of the game, but the only glaring weakness they have is size and depth up front.  Normally, I’d be more concerned about that, but as we’ve mentioned — the Sun Belt is a pretty weak conference in terms of frontcourt talent.  I think that will make things a bit easier for UL-Lafayette as they’ll almost certainly have to embrace a small ball style of play.  Good thing is they have enough guard talent and depth to do that effectively. And they have just enough inside to avoid being forced into playing a 5 guard lineup unless they choose to do so.  JR Tony Hargrove is their alpha guard, but it’s the versatility of JRs Scott Strange and Ike Mahorn, and SO Mike Tackett that will ultimately drive their success. 

#6.  Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers (wut?) come into Season 1 with a very young backcourt.  It’s a group with high potential, but they’ll need to develop fast for Carolina to have a shot at finishing top 3 in the league.  We have Carolina as the #2 ranked scoring team in the conference.  They’re not an elite jump shooting team nor are they dominant inside.  So, it will be interesting to see how efficiently they can create offense. They have a trio of solid wing players led by SRs Clifton Crispin and Lars Johnson. This wing depth will take pressure off their young backcourt and allow them to focus on creating shots for others.  Crispin likely won’t produce eye popping numbers. But he’s a solid “do-it-all” type that will fill the box score and impact games in a multitude of ways. Johnson will likely be their top perimeter threat. Consistency from him will be key.  Another key piece is SR Andy Warren.  Andy is a really productive scorer and facilitator from the PF position. Carolina is another team that isn’t elite at any one facet of the game.  But if they can find ways to score, and their youngsters grow up quick, they could be a dangerous team late in the season. 

#5.  Texas State

Finally, we get to a Sun Belt team that is going to be built around its frontcourt – the Texas St. Bobcats. I would be hard pressed to believe that there is a bigger team across the board than the Bobcats.  They’re a very intriguing team because their biggest strength could also be a disadvantage — if they’re unable to utilize it effectively.  They have three solid guards in the backcourt.  That should be enough to propel them into the top 5.  However, they are vulnerable.  They’re ranked #11 in terms of shooting, so they may have to really control tempo and try to keep scores fairly low.  That’s going to be a challenge against the better teams in the league.  They’re also not a great defensive team.  We have them ranked #10 in defense, but they negate that a bit by being ranked #2 in blocks and #4 in steals.  A player to keep your eye on is JR C Jabahri Gardner.  He is one of two monsters that live in the Sun Belt. He’s a 6’11 276lb. beast with a 100 inside scoring rating.  The downside is he likely won’t play many minutes — but we expect the minutes he does play to be dominant.

#4.  Little Rock

The second Sun Belt monster resides in Little Rock.  And his name is Levall Hunter… and he’s 6’11 282lbs… and he has a 100 inside scoring rating… and he’s only a SO.  And, unfortunately for other teams in the Sun Belt — he’s not even the best player on his team.  Because the best player on his team is Michael Lewis… and Michael Lewis is a FR… and a FR may be the best player in the Sun Belt.  That’s it.  That’s the analysis.  But seriously, Little Rock is a scary team and we very well may have them ranked too low.  But we’ll stick to our guns.  The Trojans will be led by Mr. Lewis, who may be the most dangerous scorer in the Sun Belt. This young inside-out combo will keep opposing coaching staffs up at night.  They shoot the ball really well and they’re a good defensive team.  The only reason they aren’t ranked higher is the teams ahead of them have a little more balance and depth. But do not be shocked at all to see Little Rock make a push for the title.

#3.  South Alabama

South Alabama was one of the hardest teams for me to rank in this preview.  The Jaguars are the #1 ranked shooting team in the league. And you can make a strong argument that they’re the most talented team on paper.  However, they are #11 in average defense rating.  Can such a poor defensive team really finish top 3 and compete for a title?  Yes. They can.  And that’s the conundrum.  The defensive rating is really the only weakness and it’s misleading.  We actually have them as our second best overall defensive team in the league.  You can see the details behind that in our write-up in the Best of the Sun Belt section.  But the short version is they do a lot of supplementary things really well.  The Jaguars have a lot of positional depth.  They should easily go 5-6 deep across PG, SG, and SF with several interchangeable parts.  They also have a strong trio of interior players in SO PF Clifford Clay, SR PF Greg Ray, and FR C Cedrick Smith.  Expect some really explosive games and don’t be surprised if this squad makes some serious noise down the stretch. 

#2.  Georgia Southern

The Eagles will soar in Season 1 behind what we expect to be the best offense in the Sun Belt.  They may not end up with the highest point per game, but we expect them to be the most efficient.  It’s easy to overlook how good the Eagles can be on offense.  They don’t have a specific player that we think will rank among the most dangerous scorers in the league.  What they do have is scoring depth.  Georgia Southern will be able to play 7-8 guys who we project to be above average scorers for the Sun Belt.  They’re young at the lead guard position, but every player in their backcourt seems poised to step in and contribute right away.  In addition to scoring ability, we also have them ranked as the #1 ball handling, and #2 passing team in the conference.  That’s an incredibly dangerous formula. They’re led by a high-caliber wing duo: SR DeJuan Gaines and FR Henry Gomes.  Gaines is the heart and soul of the team.  He’s the prototypical glue guy.  He’s an adequate scorer, above average defender, good rebounder and good facilitator.  Gomes is an explosive young perimeter scoring with one of the best outside jumpers in the league. Southern may have to play a little small due to a thin frontcourt.  But honestly, that could end up making them even more dangerous.  This is a team with very few flaws. 

#1.  Appalachian State

And, finally, we’ve come to the team we predict will take the Sun Belt crown in Season 1 — the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  Coach Randy Tasker inherits a very talented and senior heavy group with plenty of depth.  The Mountaineers’ biggest flaw is a lack of interior scoring where they rank last in the Sun Belt.  They’ll have to find ways to crease some easy buckets.  But, they should be competitive on nights where they struggle to score because they are a tenacious defensive team.  They only rank #6 in defensive rating, but they compliment that strongly with rankings of #1 in blocks and #2 in steals.  In addition, they have two of the better individual defenders in the league:  SR PG Tobie Jackson and SR SF Will Hix.  Jackson is a 6’0 freak athlete who will absolutely hound opposing PGs.  Hix is a bonafyde Player of the Year candidate.  The 6’8 wing does everything.  He’s a very good perimeter scorer with a great jumper, he rebounds well, and he can guard the best wing player on opposing teams.  If those things weren’t enough, we also have the Mountaineers ranked #1 in rebounding and #1 in passing.  They’re talented, they’re deep, and they have a hungry Senior class that wants to leave Boone with a conference title.  There is a lot to like about this team. 

Best of the Sun Belt

Best Offense:

Georgia Southern 

We expect the Eagles to be the top overall offense in the Sun Belt behind depth and balance.  They’re going to have 6-7 guys each night who can go for double digits and lead them to victory.  Most of their damage will be done from the perimeter, but they should have just enough inside to avoid being completely one-dimensional. Henry Gomes should be the go-to scoring option. He should thrive as Georgia Southern will almost always have 2 dangerous shooters in the backcourt with him at all times.  This will make it difficult for opposing defenses to focus solely on stopping him.  In addition to raw scoring ability, the Eagles take care of the ball and are an elite passing team.  Opposing coaches in the Sun Belt will really struggle trying to limit this group’s scoring punch. 

Runner-Up:

South Alabama

The Jaguars have a nice mix of perimeter scoring. They have two guards who are really good at creating offense in JR PG Danny Coley and JR SG Kendrick Robin.  And they surround those initiators with two of the Sun Belt’s best outside shooters:  JR SG Damien Allen and SR PG Richard Wallace. They also have a solid interior scorer in FR Cedrick Smith.  We have them ranked #1 in the conference in jump shooting, so they have the ability to be an explosive offensive team.  The main thing keeping them behind Georgia Southern is simply that they don’t have quite as much depth and aren’t as good at passing or handling the ball. But don’t be surprised if the metrics prove us wrong by the end of the year. 

Best Defense:

Appalachian State 

It’s not a coincidence that the team we’ve predicted to finish atop the conference is the team we have rated as the best overall defensive team in the conference.  The Mountaineers are led by a pair of potential Defensive Player of the Year candidates in SR PG Tobarie Jackson and SR SF Will Hix.  As a team, we have them ranked the #6 defensive team in terms of average rating.  Their other category rankings paint the picture of a complete defensive team. They’re #1 in blocks, #2 in steals, #2 in defensive rebounding, #2 in athleticism, and #3 in discipline. They’re also incredibly versatile and long on the wings.  They may struggle at times with interior defense, but they’re going to create havoc for opposing backcourts. 

Runner-Up:

South Alabama 

South Alabama isn’t a team of great individual defenders, but they supplement their low defensive rating by being #1 in defensive rebounding, steals, athleticism, and IQ while also being #2 in discipline and #3 in blocks.  We think those supplemental areas are going to result in a team that is much better than they may seem on paper.   They’re a little undersized in the frontcourt.  That will create really interesting matchups with some Sun Belt teams.  Being one of the smaller teams and being guard dominant will actually allow them to be really flexible in terms of defensive matchups.  Or, they may decide to run a zone defensive system, sag back, and try to force teams to out shoot them.  Either way, I think they’re going to be a surprisingly effective team on the defensive end. 

Top Returning Players

•   Tony Hargrove – UL-Lafayette – 6’1 PG

Tony Hargrove is the best returning guard in the Sun Belt.  Others will look to change our minds, but it’s going to be hard to match the 6’1 PG’s production in Season 1.  He’s an explosive scorer whose team will rely heavily on his ability to create offense.  He’s a high level shooter while also having the highest steal rating in the Sun Belt.  He’s going to be an absolute box score superstar night in and night out.  We aren’t predicting Player of the Year awards in our preview, but rest assured that Tony Hargrove’s name will absolutely be in the mix.  And, if UL-Lafayette exceeds expectations, we can absolutely expect him to walk away with some hardware.  Also, he’s only a JR, so he won’t be done terrorizing the league after this season. 

•   Levall Hunter – Little Rock – 6’11 C

One of the three “Sun Belt Monsters” checks in at number 2.  Hunter is the best interior scorer in the conference and is an absolute load of a human.  He’s going to pair up with sensational FR Michael Wright to form the potent duo in the league.  That pairing is going to allow him to really shine.  Teams won’t be able to just sag and load up in the paint without risking an outburst by Wright.  And teams can’t focus on Wright without opening things up for Hunter.  We expect Levall to be the most efficient scorer in the Sun Belt at season’s end.  However, he’s not just an offensive weapon.  Hunter also has the highest defense rating in the conference.  So, even though he’s not a good shot blocker, opposing big men will struggle to manufacture offense in the post.

•   Will Hix – Appalachian State – 6’8 SF

Mr. Do Everything for our preseason top team.  Every coach in the country wants a kid like Will Hix.  He’s got great length, athleticism, versatility, and doesn’t really have any holes in his game.  He may struggle to win a Player of the Year award due to offensive numbers.  But make no mistake — Hix is as important to his team as any player in the Sun Belt.  Don’t be surprised to see him flirt with triple-doubles on any given night.  I don’t expect him to put up many high scoring nights, but you won’t see many 0s in his box scores.  He may not be a finalist for overall Player of the Year, but we do expect him to be in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year.  Expect the Mountaineers to give Hix the best opposing wing every night.  And expect Hix to rise to the occasion.

•   Eddie Grace – UL-Monroe – 6’6 PF

The league’s best individual defender takes the #4 spot in our review.  Do not tell Eddie Grace that he’s an undersized forward.  He’s willing to defend anyone, anywhere, at any time — and he’s going to give them hell.  Eddie has the second highest defense rating – 1 pt below Levall Hunter.  But unlike Hunter, Mr. Grace is a solid shot blocker and has really good hands.  That combination allows him to defend any position to great effect.  He hangs his hat on the defensive end, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s one-dimensional.  He’s also a very good scorer and solid mid range jump shooter.  UL-Monroe will require a lot out of him as he’s also their top scoring threat.  Because of that, he’s going to produce full stat lines every game and is a dark horse Player of the Year candidate.  I think he’ll have to be in the conversation if he can carry UL-Monroe to a top 5 finish. 

•   Andy Warren – Coastal Carolina – 6’8 PF

Andy Warren is another guy who could really shake things up this season.  He’s a good sized PF who will score in a variety of ways.  He doesn’t have a great outside shot, but it’s good enough to step out and hit the occasional 3 while being solid from mid range.  He’s one of the highest rated scorers in the league, which will offset the fact that he doesn’t have an elite inside shooting rating.  He won’t be as efficient as Lavall Hunter (nobody will), but he’s going to get plenty of shot attempts and that volume should result in him leading the Chanticleers in scoring.  He’s a solid all around defender and rebounder.  The area where he’s going to surprise people is his passing ability.  He’s a really good passing big man.  That will make it tough for teams to double him in the post.  He has more than enough ability to kick it out to shooters or hit cutters.  Expect a really big season from Mr. Warren. 

Top Newcomers

•   Michael Lewis – Little Rock – 6’0 SG

Undersized dynamo from Foreman, AR.  He was overlooked by most of the larger conferences because of his size. And Little Rock took full advantage by keeping him home in Arkansas. We have him rated as the top scorer in the Sun Belt regardless of class.  The scariest part is that he has a legit shot to be POY as a Freshman.  He’s not just an explosive scorer.  He’s an excellent rebounder from the guard spot, handles the ball, defends, and he’s a high level passer.  He may be the most exciting player in the Sun Belt in Season 1 and is likely going to be one of the better small guards in the country. 

•   Henry Gomes – Georgia Southern – 6’7 SF

Gomes looks destined to be the Klay Thompson of the Sun Belt.  He is a sharpshooting wing with excellent size and should be an above average defender.  Perimeter shooting is definitely his biggest strength, but he’s not just a spot up shooter.  We project him to be an above average scorer and at 6’7 he’s more than capable of scoring inside.  That makes him a dangerous 3 level scorer.  Coach Coffey will also have the luxury of playing as SG, SF, or even as a small ball PF.  That should allow the Eagles to really maximize his scoring potential. We don’t expect Gomes to win Freshman of the Year due to Georgia Southern’s balance and guys like Michael Lewis, but he’s going to be a force.  

•   Cedrick Smith – South Alabama – 6’9 C

Cedrick Smith is the sole frontcourt player on our list.  That should make Jaguar fans happy and optimistic about the future.  Smith is prepared to step in and immediately impact South Alabama from the C position.  He’ll likely be a four year starter for the Eagles, but he may have already reached his ceiling in terms of potential.  He can finish around the rim and is also capable of hitting mid range jumpers at a consistent rate.  He’s going to be a top 5 interior scorer in the Sun Belt in terms of skill.  His numbers may be modest due to South Alabama having a lot of options and the likelihood that they’ll be a perimeter oriented team.  However, we expect his efficiency to be really solid. 

•   Ivoree Thompson – Georgia Southern – 6’2 PG

Ivoree Thompson is another promising young guard entering the Sun Belt in Season 1.  He’s a very solid all-around lead guard with good size.  He has a solid stroke from the perimeter, but I expect him to really shine this season as a facilitator.  A young lead guard couldn’t ask for a much better situation to join than what he’ll have at Georgia Southern.  He’ll be constantly surrounded by people who can put the ball in the basket.  In addition, he’s a good rebounder and defender.  As such, I think he’ll get plenty of minutes regardless of whether he ends up starting or not.  And don’t be surprised if he leads the Eagles in assists. 

•   Monty Irwin – Texas State – 6’2 PG

Irwin is our second young PG and the final newcomer we’ll highlight in our Season 1 preview.  Several freshmen were considered for this final spot. We decided to highlight Irwin, because  he seems likely to step in an immediate starting role.  That gives him an outside shot in the race for Freshman of the Year.  He’s at his best when he’s creating for teammates.  He’ll be somewhat limited because Texas State isn’t loaded with scorers, but they have just enough that he could push Ivoree Thompson to finish first in assists among freshmen.  Beyond his shot creation ability, he’s also an above average defender and an excellent free throw shooter.  He doesn’t have an elite jump shot, but he’s good enough to punish teams that sag off him on defense.